Cumulation from Proper Specification: Theory, Logic, Research Design, and “Nice” Laws

Jim Ray has set out a challenge to students of international conflict: how can we improve our research to do better in the cumulation of knowledge and understanding of international phenomena? While most of the commentary in this special issue revolves about more technical statistical issues, the questions that Ray raises must also be addressed not just on statistical/methods grounds, but within the context of broader theoretical concerns and theoretical specification. That is the aim of this article. Drawing on the concept of the “research triad” of logic, theory, and methodology presented by Most & Starr (1989), this article will stress the relationship of theory to the development of research designs that will permit both the additive and integrative cumulation of knowledge. This article will discuss how statistical model specification can be informed by broader principles of research design, demonstrating how Ray’s basic points are supported by earlier, complementary, and converging lines of argument.